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EpiCast: Chronic Kidney Disease — Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Publication Date:  August 2013

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(From GlobalData)

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), or chronic renal disease, is an asymptomatic, long-term condition that damages the kidneys and leads to the loss of kidney function over time. CKD affects people of all ages; however, the risk is higher in people ages 65 years and older. Globally, the estimated prevalence of CKD is 7.2% in adults over the age of 30 years.

The disease is more common in women than men, and is also more common in people of African and South Asian origin due to the high prevalence of diabetes in South Asians and hypertension in people of African origin. Based on the glomerular filtration rate, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) classified CKD into five stages in 2002. Each stage of CKD requires different tests and treatments for management of the disease.

According to GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast, there were 69.53 million cases of CKD in the 6MM in 2012, with almost 39 million cases in the US alone. Over the next 10 years, the prevalent cases of CKD in the 6MM will grow by 1.62% annually, reaching 80.83 million cases by 2022.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast is supported by data from country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals. They obtained age- and sex-specific prevalence data for CKD in the 6MM from nationally-representative studies in each country to forecast the total prevalent cases of CKD.

A major strength of this analysis is the use of country-specific data and a uniform methodology across all the markets to forecast the prevalent cases of CKD. To ascertain the accuracy of the data obtained from various studies, GlobalData epidemiologists selected studies that determined the CKD prevalence by measuring the creatinine concentration using blood and urine samples from all the study participants.

In addition, GlobalData epidemiologists provide segmentation of the CKD prevalent cases by stage per the KDOQI guidelines in each market, despite the stage-specific data being limited to certain age groups and stages.


  • The Chronic Kidney Disease EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of chronic kidney disease in the six major markets (6MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast (2012–2022) of the prevalent cases of chronic kidney disease segmented by age (in five-year increments beginning at age 20 and ending at age =85 years), sex, and stage (1–5) in the 6MM.
  • The chronic kidney disease epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 6MM.
  • The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

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(From GlobalData)


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